As in any market, if two comparable properties come on the market in a particular neighborhood at the same time and one sells and the other one doesn’t….it is pretty easy to determine that either the marketing, the price, the terms, and/or the condition attracted the buyer(s) to one property vs. the other. 

Without looking beyond the graphs, the averages, and the medians, one is unaware the number of properties that are selling quickly from those that are taking their sweet old time.

To understand which market a seller is in and/or buyer is looking in, one needs to separate the days on the market, not by price range but by speed. 

Walking along the waterfront in front of the  Marina’s small craft harbor this time of year, there is a lot of activity, as boaters are awaiting for the Opening Day of Yacht Season just one week away.

Yet that’s not all one can see if one just looks over the sea wall near the docks…

There are two proud parents and their little duckling swimming around completely unnoticed. 

 So selling homes in San Francisco during the winter may be considered as the perfect time of year to test if the roof is currently leaking or not by looking for the tell tale signs of discoloration on the ceiling, around skylights and windows.  Inherently a “good” roof can leak if the gutters, scuppers, and downspouts are clogged and water finds its way in.   I like to remind Sellers that prudent Buyers will locate those areas on the exterior before walking into an Open House.   As the agent holding the Open House (and especially if it is raining), I customarily have the San Francisco Sellers’ Disclosures out in plain view for Buyers to review.   

I highlight the six questions in the disclosures asking the Seller to disclose his knowledge of any present or past water inclusion; even leaks have been repaired and/or stopped.  Below are two of the six questions about water inclusion:       

During the last half of the 4^th Quarter, San Francisco Sellers are notorious for taking their properties off the market just before Thanksgiving if their property had not sold.  Many of these Sellers would rather wait until the New Year to put their property back on the market than to become stale on the market during the holidays.  Between November 1^st and December 31^st in 2006 152 homes and 284 condos/co-ops/lofts/TICs were withdrawn from the market and during this same time in 2007, 175 homes and 353 condos/co-ops/lofts/TICs were withdrawn from the market in hopes of re-surfacing in 2008 as fresh new listings.

During this same time, every year there is another group of San Francisco Sellers that dare to put their property on the market in November and December to find their properties snatched up by “holiday” Buyers eager to own a property before the end of the year.  In 2006, 69 single family homes and 79 condos/co-ops/lofts/TICs come on the market and closed between Halloween and New Year’s Eve.  This past year in 2007, 39 single family homes and 55 condos/co-ops/lofts/TICs came on the market and closed in less than 60 days. 

Both years, the Buyers that stayed in the market may have had less competition than those Buyers that took some time off during the holidays, yet  not surprisingly the single family dwellings and the condos/co-ops/lofts/TICs  sold 103% and 102% respectively above their asking prices (with three having undisclosed selling prices).

With all that said, generally speaking, the 4th Quarter 2007 was a bit different than in 2006 as more Sellers were unwilling to play that game of withdrawing their property from the market during the holiday season and losing their property’s exposure. 

The “New Year” Buyer will come back from the holidays (after getting in some snow-time on the slopes) to see some familiar homes still on the market and I suspect, a few more will slowly be coming back on the market as well.

 My opinion: I think it is about time….what’s good for the goose is good for the gander. 

The public needs to get more accurate information and if the MLS can provide it all the better than checking www.zillow.com using the most recent tax information and less conclusive information by checking www.trulia.com from sales information provided by larger brokerage firms recent sold information.

I knew the deal was in trouble when the Homeowner’s Association (HOA) “Common Interest Development Disclosure Statement” in the Seller’s ”Pre-Sale Disclosure Package” (provided to my Buyer prior to writing his offer) stated that the HOA was not anticipating an increase in HOA dues and/or any special assessments, when in fact my Buyer’s lender request for the HOA to complete their ”HOA Condominium Certification” (after acceptance of my Buyer’s offer) stated the contrary. 

This can happen several ways and in most cases, be avoided with an observant, inquisitive, and experienced fiduciary for the Seller’s agent. 

(1).  Neither the Seller nor the Seller’s agent were monitoring the current (closed door) HOA Board of Directors’ meetings or discussions regarding budget concerns and/or possible special assessment activities.

(2).   Neither the Seller nor the Seller’s agent had provided the Buyer the most recent HOA disclosures, HOA minutes, and/or updated/current “Common Interest Development Disclosure Statement” that reflected the “anticipated” change in HOA dues.

(3).   Neither the Seller nor the Seller’s Agent had disclosed to the Buyer any potential unresolved or contemplated HOA budgetary increases, as they became known or available.

My question to the Seller’s agent:  Why weren’t these issues either disclosed and investigated  prior to putting this property on the market and at the very least, made known to a Buyer first rather than by a 3rd party?

Now, my Buyer, with this newly discovered information, will either re-negotiate the terms of the sale (in his favor) or walk away from the property.  

Sellers are able to sell almost anything (without giving away their money), if they understand their duty to disclose and their task is to chose their agent wisely.

After all, you need to check out the curb appeal and whether or not you could really live on that side of the street and/or that end of the street on that block in that neighborhood.   Without checking out the neighborhood, how else are you going to find out how far is it to the nearest bus stop when you are running late in the morning and how far a walk to the neighborhood commercial area to get a latte in the morning or where you would walk the dog?.  

In a recent post “One Way to Buy Real Estate in San Francisco”, I suggested driving a neighborhood has its advantages of spotting properties that may be coming on the market and probably have not yet hit the internet.

Case in point - I took this picture in the Marina originally on September 25, 2007 with the moving truck and workers in front of the house where the arrow points for my October 4^th post.

On Friday, October 5^th, this 4 bedroom with 4.5 baths home came on the MLS for $3,495,000.

By Friday, October 19^th, 14 days later, the MLS showed an accepted offer and opened escrow as “Active Continue to Show” which usually means there are some contingencies that need to be met before closing.

By Monday, October 29^th, 10 days into the escrow, the MLS showed the property as “Pending” which usually means that there are no contingencies and the property and the parties are preparing to close escrow.

On Thursday, November 8^th, 20 days into the escrow and a total on 34 days on the market, the property closes for $3,495,000*  - noting there is an asterisk after the sales price.

So, “Who’s Market Is It Anyway?” and “Why An Asterisk After Some Sales Prices in the MLS?” 

Perhaps the real question is from whom would both parties want to hide the sales price? 

The answer might be to protect one’s privacy from someone  - i.e. nosy family, friends, and/or neighbors, disgruntled ex-spouses or creditors, employers’/employees’ chit chat, the media, etc. etc. (?)

In the real estate world, the reason may have been that the Seller sold the property so high over the asking price that it was a bizarre one time event, or the Buyer bought the property so low under the asking price that it was embarrassing to the Seller and/or so awkward to disclose the real sales price to the unsuccessful bidders (?) 

In any case, without disclosing the real sales price the MLS, Zillow.com and Trulia.com and other’s sales comparable data bases become eschewed and it makes for juicy cocktail “real estate” talk.  After all so far in 2007, there have been 51 MLS sales with undisclosed sales prices.

To hide from curious eyes, one’s sales price from the San Francisco MLS and the public records is actually quite easy to do prior to the close of escrow.

Both the San Francisco MLS and the escrow holder will need mutual instructions from both the Buyer and the Seller:

(1).   The San Francisco MLS needs a letter from the listing agent signed by the Buyer and the Seller stating the sales price is not to be disclosed by the MLS at the close of escrow and naming the sales date and the Buyer’s agent.  The MLS will then enter into their San Francisco MLS database the asterisk to the current asking price as the sale price on the closing date.

(2).   Buyer and Seller will instruct their escrow holder to prepare the Grant Deed for recording at the close of escrow by adding the notation “See tax on separate sheet” to “The undersigned grantor(s) declare(s) the Documentary Transfer Tax is … “.  The City and County of San Francisco’s Recorder’s Office will accept the notation as long as the documentary transfer tax paid on the actual sales price stated on that separate sheet at the time of recording. 

By the way, it may take those curious eyes several years to be able to approximate the actual sales price at time of sale.   When the time comes that the San Francisco Tax Assessor has finally computed the Supplemental Taxes, several tax years have passed.  By that time, the current tax bill will show only the current total assessed value of the property for public to see. 

Question: Would this be a term of sale you would consider or agree to do?

This “hidden” neighborhood (highlighted in blue) is named “Portola Extension”, because the homes and the views on these streets are so similar to those to the North that you would think you were in the Portola District of San Francisco.  The Portola District(pronounced by its residents is “Por’-ta-la) is located between Highway 280 to the North and Highway 101 to the East and Mansell Street to the South and the Western side of Mc Laren Park and back down to Highway 280 to the West.

If you recall, last month in my article entitled “Did You Know San Francisco Celebrates the Moon?”, I said that Thursday, October 25, 2007 will once more be the perfect photo opportunity for us to take pictures of the Hunter Moon over San Francisco.

This is the last time this year that we will be able to take pictures at a decent hour from our every own San Francisco neighborhood street corners of the moon.

On Thursday evening, the moon will be rising at 5:51 P.M. while the sun will be setting 6:20 P.M. and dark at 7:17 P.M and a full Hunter Moon at 9:52 P.M.

Have fun. I’ll share if you share.