December Property sales were 80, down -20.0% from 100 in December of 2010 and -15.8% lower than the 95 sales last month. December 2011 sales were at a mid level compared to December of 2010 and 2009. December YTD sales of 1,020 are running 2.2% ahead of last year’s year-to-date sales of 998.

Home & Condo/Coop Sold Prices

The Median Sales Price in December was $1,348,500, down -7.4% from $1,455,500 in December of 2010 and down -14.9% from $1,585,000 last month. The Average Sales Price in December was $1,916,134, up 5.9% from $1,809,866 in December of 2010 and down -15.2% from $2,258,616 last month. December 2011 ASP was at highest level compared to December of 2010 and 2009.

Home & Condo/Coop Inventory & MSI

The Total Inventory of Properties available for sale as of December was 174, down -43.9% from 310 last month and down -28.4% from 243 in December of last year. December 2011 Inventory was at the lowest level compared to December of 2010 and 2009.

Home & Condo/Coop Absorption of Inventory (MSI)

MSI is the number of months it takes to sell the current inventory at  the monthly sales pace.  A comparatively lower MSI is more beneficial for sellers while a higher MSI is better for buyers.  The December 2011 MSI of 2.2 months was at its lowest level compared with December of 2010 and 2009.

Home & Condo/Coop Market Time

The average Days On Market (DOM) shows how many days the average Property is on the Market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM tends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for December was 73, up 21.7% from 60 days last month and equal to 73 days in December of last year. The December 2011 DOM was at its lowest level compared with December of 2010 and 2009.

Home & Condo/Coop Selling Price per Square Foot

The Selling Price per Square Foot is a great indicator for the direction of Property values. Since Median Sales Price and Average Sales price can be impacted by the ‘mix’ of high or low end Properties in the market, the selling price per square foot is a more normalized indicator on the direction of Property values. The December 2011 Selling Price per Square Foot of $681 was down -11.7% from $771 last month and down -1.4% from $691 in December of last year.

Home & Condo/Coop Selling Price vs Original Listing Price

The Selling Price vs Original Listing Price reveals the average amount that Sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. The December 2011 Selling Price vs Original List Price of 99.6% was up from 99.0% last month and up from 98.0% in December of last year.

Based on information from San Francisco MLS for the period  through 12/31/2011. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage does not guarantee the data accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS’s may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

December Property sales were 413, down -4.2% from 431 in December of 2010 and -4.4% lower than the 432 sales last month. December 2011 sales were at their lowest level compared to December of 2010 and 2009. December YTD sales of 5,160 are running 5.5% ahead of last year’s year-to-date sales of 4,891.

Prices  for homes & condos

The Median Sales Price in December was $550,000, up 1.7% from $541,000 in December of 2010 and equal to $550,000 last month. The Average Sales Price in December was $541,583, down -2.8% from $557,001 in December of 2010 and down -3.6% from $561,893 last month. December 2011 ASP was at the lowest level compared to December of 2010 and 2009.

Inventory for homes & condos

 The Total Inventory of Properties available for sale as of December was 950, down -40.6% from 1,600 last month and down -50.3% from 1,912 in December of last year. December 2011 Inventory was at the lowest level compared to December of 2010 and 2009.

Housing Absorption (MSI) for homes & condos

MSI is the number of months it takes to sell the current inventory at  the monthly sales pace.  A comparatively lower MSI is more beneficial for sellers while a higher MSI is better for buyers. The December 2011 MSI of 2.3 months was at its lowest level compared with December of 2010 and 2009.

Market Time for homes & condos

The average Days On Market (DOM) shows how many days the average Property is on the Market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM tends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for December was 84, up 5.0% from 80 days last month and up 2.4% from 82 days in December of last year. The December 2011 DOM was at its highest level compared with December of 2010 and 2009.

Selling Price per Square Foot for homes & condos

The Selling Price per Square Foot is a great indicator for the direction of Property values. Since Median Sales Price and Average Sales price can be impacted by the ‘mix’ of high or low end Properties in the market, the selling price per square foot is a more normalized indicator on the direction of Property values. The December 2011 Selling Price per Square Foot of $423 was down -4.1% from $441 last month and down -4.1% from $441 in December of last year.

Selling Price vs Original Listing Price for homes & condos

The Selling Price vs Original Listing Price reveals the average amount that Sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. The December 2011 Selling Price vs Original List Price of 99.8% was down from 100.3% last month and up from 98.3% in December of last year.

Have you ever wandered around San Francisco and came upon a neighborhood that you fell in love with …and you didn’t even know where you were? 

And the next thing you wondered was, can we afford it?

As I was putting out my last Open House Sign this past Sunday in Sea Cliff, a couple stopped me to ask me just that….”What is this neighborhood called?” and “How much are these homes selling go for?”.   I told them to follow me into my Open House to find out more.

They loved the grand homes’ style of architecture and they were fasinated by the gently sloping streets that captured the views of the Golden Gate Bridge and the water at every turn.  Had they wandered 2 or 3 blocks to the West, they would have been on the  Lincoln Park Golf Course and 2 or 3 blocks to the North, they would have found the path down the cliff to China Beach, not to mention the world class path along the water’s edge from Ocean Beach to Crissy Field.

Close enough to the water to hear the waves at night

The streets of Sea Cliff climb up the hillside gently to capture the views of the Golden Gate

Anyone wandering into one of my Open Houses will walk out with more knowledge about the real estate market activity for the surrounding neighborhood(s) and San Francisco’s Real Estate trends &  other statistics than when they walked in.

As someone said at last week’s Open House, “It is like you set up a real estate course here”. 

In our rapidly changing San Francisco market, it is a difficult decision in finding,  much less choosing, a real estate agent to assist one in buying and/or selling one of their most important and largest investments, their home.  Therefore, what better place for them to start their interview process than at an Open House, by interviewing for their future agent.

Every Buyer and Seller wants to understand the real estate market before they buy or sell and while I am at an Open House to show them the value of the home I am selling, I am also there…prepared to show them why it is the best time in history to buy or sell a house and why I may be the best agent to get them where they want to go or be at the best possible price.

For example at last week’s Open House, one of my  hand-outs, ”The 3 Year Trend of Homes SOLD  in Sea Cliff and in the Surrounding Neighborhoods over $1.5 Million”  showed that the real estate market is beginning to show momentum upward with:

• The Median SOLD Price in December 2010 at $1,865,000, up 2.8% from $1,815,000 in December 2009, yet down -1.6%  from $1,898,250 in November 2010. 
• The Average SOLD Price  in December 2010 was $2,669,750, up from $1,895,667 in December 2009 and up 12.2% from $2,380,417 in November 2010. 
• December 2010 Average SOLD Price was at highest level compared to December of 2009 and 2008.

SOLD Prices are fairly stable over $1.5 Million in the past 3 years

I quickly explained that with zero SOLDS reported in January & February 2009 and February 2010 as indicated by the arrows above, there is an explainable dip in the trends for those months.

Let’s meet.  Stop by and pick up one of my hand-outs at any of my Open Houses…and let’s start the interview process by asking me. “How’s the market?”.

Just follow my Open House Signs, they are everywhere!  Or give me a tweet @AnnScherbert.

Follow Ann Scherbert's Open House Signs to understanding the market

Yet, it is worth knowing what the coveted 2000 block of Jefferson has been touting for decades…and that is, there is another island in the Marina District of San Francisco.

Over the years, these neighbors have shared and accumulated?documentation showing that they are living on top of an?”ancient island” that was mapped as early as?1789,? just off of?”Wash Woman Cove”.

These neighbors know the “ancient island” as “Strawberry Island” surrounded by an estuary to the West and South West and the Bay to the North and North East?extending over portions of 10 blocks in the?Marina.?

The National Geologic Map Data Base for the Marina also shows “Strawberry Island” as “Qb” made up of coarse gravel and large cobble stones.

??

This little bit of Marina trival is worth?knowing, if you live on “Strawberry Island”.

On the Northside of San Francisco the median asking price for Condos?is now $1,095,000 and for Homes, it is now?$3,495,000.

For stellar buyers that have been eyeing?prime located Condos and/or Homes in “done” condition?on the Northside of San Francisco, they are?now able to take full advantage of? a “jumbo conforming” loan (up to) $729,750 at an?attractive rate below 5% that the Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac “conforming” loans (up to $417,000)?have been touting?for some time now this year.

Under Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac guidelines on the Northside of San Francisco:

29 Condos out of 179 Condos on the market have asking prices of $556,000 or less. Buyers for these 29 Condos are able to take full advantage of the lowest interest rates with 25% down payment and the “conforming” loan amount of $417,000.

An additional 52 Condos out of 179 Condos on the market have asking prices between $556,000 and $973,000.? Buyers for these 52 Condos are?able to take?full advantage of the lowest interest rates with 25% down payment and the?”jumbo conforming” loan of $719,750.

There is only one home out of 64 homes on the market is?asking price below $912,000 for Buyers to?take full advantage of the lowest interest rates with 20% down payment using the “jumbo conforming” loan amount of $719,750.

With the new appraisal rules, appraisers will be an “arms-distance” from the lender and a “done” condition will be a Seller’s best defense in getting an accepted offer closed.

Listen to this video?(below) to understand that multiple buyers in San Francisco are?no longer waiting to?get ready?and now are taking action.?

Real Estate Rebound Video from CBS5.com

Only one lucky Buyer bought each of these homes…leaving all these other Buyers still wanting to buy and ready to buy.

With this upsurge of 1st time Buyers’ demand in San Francisco, now is the time to do your homework,?get qualified, and be ready to?get what you want.

The tide is changing in San Francisco, the sun is coming out, spring is in the air…get going!

Historically speaking the affordability standard?has never?changed over the years for 1st time Buyers.?

What did change is those Buyers with no money (that bought in recent years) had a short time view on a long term investment.

Affordability?has always been reflected in?a comfortable monthly mortgage payment with?an initial cash investment into the property (i.e. down payment) and the peace of mind of?an interest rate?that is within one’s means now and for?the long term.

Today’s 1st time Buyers have a lot more going for them by getting off the fence?with lower interest rates, the federal government paying them to buy before 12/01/09 with a $8,000 tax credit,?and affordable prices.??

…even if you do the numbers?to check out price per square feet, days on the market/when properties came on the? market, original price?/current price, built date, …etc. etc. etc.??

This is not an ordinary market on the Northside of San Francisco. And Buyers that are really seriously looking to buy and do not have an agent yet…need an “experienced” agent?early on.

At my Open Houses now, I have set up an easel to show 1st time Buyers the opportunities they are not recognizing for themselves.

Cutting through the numbers on a spreadsheet and visiting open houses is worth the time in recognizing this rare moment in time for 1st time Buyers on the Northside of San Francisco.

Yet,?there are actually 3 markets for one bedroom condos on?the North side of the city…

… and without recognizing these 3 markets, one will not to?see the “real values” of buying in?the one bedroom condo market?on the Northside of San Francisco.

Market One – New construction with & without parking located on the edges of the Northside of San Francisco.?

Market Two – Condos without parking or with only leased parking available are generally considered the lower end of the market.

Market Three- Condos with parking (deeded) that is included in the price of the condo?tend to have the highest resale value of all three markets.

Recognizing the?”real value” of?each of these one bedroom markets is important and more important is, “What do you want that you don’t have now?”

When, in fact, the real question is?related to price and condition questions:

1.?? “How much time do I have to get my offer together?”

2.?? “Why is this property still available?”

3.?? “What is?wrong with this property?”

In today’s market, the how long is “long” is now more a statement of?today’s economy and less about “price”, in “move-in” or “brand-new” condition, and/or it’s “a fixer”.

“Long” has to do?more with most people won’t take the risk in getting?what they want.?

With the risks of today’s?economy, come the opportunities of?cheap interest rates,?affordable prices, more pristine properties,? Federal and California State 1st time Buyer incentives, and less competition from other Buyers.

The real question is “How ‘long’ will it take for?Buyers to?realize that the opportunities?of?owning a home?in San Francisco are here and they are able to get what they want today ?”

And if? “to be smart” is to be “everyone” that won’t do what it takes to get what they want until “everyone else” is?getting it….than again smart they are.

The?”smart” time to buy?would be?when there are historically low interest rates?coupled with a Buyers’ market in San Francisco…and “everyone”? thought?that will never happen in their life time.

The opportunity to?own apart of?San Francisco is right here and now for those that are “just smart”!?

Follow the signs…